Friday, May 1, 2009

Swine flu: The predictable pandemic

THE swine flu virus has been a serious pandemic threat for years but research into its potential has been neglected compared with other kinds of flu.

New cases are being reported far from the original outbreak in Mexico. The clusters of milder infections in the US suggest the virus is spreading readily among people. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says this strain is so different from existing human flu viruses that most people have no immunity to it. Despite the claims, there are no existing vaccines.

All this means the virus could go pandemic. Or it might not: it could be self-limiting. If the virus spreads less readily than is feared, it might not be able to maintain itself in the human population and could fizzle out.


The WHO is only now taking measures to produce an effective vaccine against the new H1N1 virus. This will between four to six months to develop, test and produce in sufficient numbers.

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